UPDATED: March 2025

At the start of Autumn, the market was recovering from bad weather and hurricanes in many growing areas. The end of October saw lumber gain 4.5% with 2x4 Southern pine up 21% due to a lack of log supply. Another lumber increase happened going into December of 3.7% due to supply problems in SPF. Panel markets also saw an increase with a 16.9% increase in OSB.

January saw a slight decrease in both lumber and panels as the quiet of winter settled in. In February, we saw only a slight decrease by 1/mbf in framing lumber as Canadian SPF dropped due to winter weather and Southern pine rose 18/mbf as buyers prepared for the Spring building season. Panels also dropped in winter with slight gains going into Spring.

With the November 2024 Presidential election, we saw a change of administration in Washington. With this came a threat of a 25% punitive tariff on Canadian goods that included lumber and panels. Before the tariffs were due to begin, the Trump administration announced there would be a 30-day pause, but producers and traders are still wary. If tariffs are imposed, costs will rise not only on Canadian lumber, but on American lumber as well. American producers will see an increase in demand, and opportunity to raise prices. Spring pricing will depend on tariffs, the number of workers available, and, as always, weather.

A major OSB plant, RoyOMartin, completed a big expansion in Texas at the end of last year and we expect to see OSB more plentiful. Structural Panels in January dropped 4.8%, with plywood up 5.2% and OSB down 15%. OSB is up strong as of the beginning of February, having bounced off a low one week prior. The reason for the bounce is that traders saw that not only was OSB a great value, but that it was likely to run up quickly if the 25% tariff would apply to Canadian OSB.

Lumber costs at the start of January were down 3% from the end of November. Southern pine lumber rose 2.2% and Canadian SPF dropped almost 5%. Studs of all species were down 3.5%. Seasonal expectations show that markets will fall into the winter. The outlier was the rising cost of southern pine. The reason is the growing gap in cost for southern pine versus all other species—the largest on record. Although western lumber movement far exceeds that of southern pine here at McCoys, we can expect increased species swapping by customers prioritizing cost savings as Southern pine rose into February.

Forms and steel along with all doors, trim, and hardware have had a slow winter but the Spiring building season is expected to move up prices.

Here’s what we see now with some of the lumber and other building products in high demand.

• Framing Lumber:
  2x4, 2x6, 2x8, 2x10, 2x12, southern yellow pine lumber, and western species lumber prices continue to be a rollercoaster with decreases in western species and an increase in Southern pine. Green Doug Fir is very strong. It’s heavily used and produced in California, and we use a lot of Green Doug Fir 22’ and longer material. The big question remains whether tariffs will be imposed after a 30-day pause.
• OSB and Plywood:
  OSB has been decreasing since November and slowing bouncing up in late winter. The panel market is also monitoring the tariffs closely.
• Rebar:
  As we come out of a very sluggish winter, prices have increased due to a threat on steel tariffs. As we move into what many project will be a very busy spring and with the uncertainty of import bar, price is expected to have healthy and steady growth.
• T-Posts:
  As we move into prime fence building season, we are expecting demand to increase. Cattle prices are currently at record highs and ranchers may have more resources to replace expiring fencing. Recent weather events have also increased the need for replacement fences to be built. As we move into the fence building season, we do expect lead time to slightly extend but do not foresee any issues in supply.
• Windows and Doors:
  Lead times on doors & windows are stable and products are readily available while pricing remains steady.

McCoy’s merchandising and pricing teams source high-quality products and keep them in stock at the best prices. Our millworks work as fast as possible to get doors and windows shipped out. If you have any questions about the materials listed above or other products, please let us know by calling our hotline at 1-877-542-8986 or dropping by one of our stores. Let us know how we can help – we’re here to serve you.